| Written by Ajay Makan, on 17-08-2007 19:12 |
Campaigning is now (officially) over and ballot boxes will be open tomorrow at 7am. Taxi drivers say they are booked all day to take the elderly to vote, and families are setting alarms for 6am to be the first in line. Only the young, it seems, are untouched by election fever.
So what will the first election in which political parties have been allowed to compete freely mean for the Maldives?
Gayoom Or Anni?
Any pretence that tomorrow’s referendum is about an informed decision between two systems of government is now all but gone.
The referendum was born out of political stalemate in the Special Majlis a year ago. And the campaigns of both parties have ensured it has remained political.
President Gayoom announced his intention to run for a seventh term under a presidential system at the start of the campaign. And the MDP has been happy to force home the message; voting presidential is voting for Gayoom.
So tomorrow is a referendum on President Gayoom.
Since 2003 Anni has claimed the people of the Maldives are united in their anger and opposition to the regime.
He has said the opposition will beat the government on any issue, any time, any place; if the President chose Mars, the people would vote for Mercury.
The idea of a restive population aligned against the government has never been electorally tested. Tomorrow the myth will become reality or be fatally punctured.
Who Controls The Constitution?
In many ways this referendum is a false vote. Nothing changes on Sunday, whether the people vote for presidential or parliamentary.
But people are voting to say who should control the process, and speed, of change.
A vote for the presidential system will give President Gayoom a mandate to use his in built majority in the Special Majlis to force through a constitution. He has always had the numbers to do this, but not the moral authority.
A win for a parliamentary system and the government will have to respect the rump of MDP MPs in the Special Majlis above and beyond their numerical significance, or loose further legitimacy.
Political Obituaries?
According to his spokesman, President Gayoom will seek election to a parliamentary constituency should the presidential system not prevail tomorrow.
But whether he will have the stomach for a local election campaign after thirty years of palace rule is questionable.
Anni is widely expected to seek the MDP’s presidential candidacy in 2008 if the people do not chose a parliamentary system.
Anni will remain arguably the Maldives’ most charismatic politician, whatever the result tomorrow.
And the loyalty of MDP grassroots activists to their figurehead is such that he is likely to win the party nomination.
But the party may haemorrhage support and sympathy for its opposition stance if popularly defeated tomorrow, hurting a presidential bid by any MDP candidate.
Turnout
There is one qualification to the winner takes all interpretation: Turnout.
If turnout is low neither party can claim popular endorsement. Low turnout would be a slap in the face for both a discredited government and the aggressively oppositional stance of the MDP.
Will Maldivians protest at the level of politics in the country by simply staying away?
Filling The Gap
And if they do, will anyone be able to step into the credibility gap?
High profile reformists who are aloof from the MDP, either because they left it in protest at Anni’s tactics, or because they chose to work for reform from within government, are perennially tipped as a third force in Maldivian politics.
But despite much public respect for politicians like Ibrahim Ismail and Dr Hassan Saeed, none seem to have developed a personally following of their own.
Arguably this is because the polarisation between government and opposition has squeezed out constructive political activity.
And because, despite the legalisation of political parties in 2005, the police have not allowed them to function freely.
But campaigning for this referendum has been free to an extent not seen before in the country. In the aftermath new political parties may be given the opportunity and space to pitch themselves to the public.
Look Out For…
So beyond a victory for the government or the opposition, what clues can the referendum result give us to the Maldives’ political future?
Turnout will not only tell us about disaffection, it will tell us about the commitment of the government and opposition’s core support.
The MDP strongholds are Malé and the southern atolls. If turnout is higher here than in other atolls, it will show the party’s grassroots members remain committed to the party.
Conversely results in small island communities will show whether the government can still rely on the traditional deference of less politicised communities.
If youth turnout is as low as expected, it will show the most numerous political constituency is still up for grabs; eighteen to twenty one year olds account for almost a fifth of registered voters, in a country with a remarkably young population.
But the political intricacies will wait for later analysis. Come tomorrow night, the country will know whether Maldivians have voted for President Gayoom or Anni. Courtesy: Minivan News
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